Is this the right time to invest in properties?

What? You have spare cash to buy another house?! Lucky you, but, wait, how will prices move in the next year or two! You don't want to be caught in a falling market, do you :P

When Singapore experiences a recession, property prices almost always falls. The severity of the recession gives an early indication on how property prices will fare over the next year or two. In the last 2 recessions, property prices went south sharply in 1998, or fell and remained at low levels for the next few years after 2001. You can just twiddle your fingers if this happens to you!

Since 1990, Singapore's worst recession was 2001 with a fall of 2.4% in GDP, a broad measure of the Singapore economy. For 2008, Singapore's GDP is now estimated to be a respectable 1.9% despite the turbulences of the past year. However, 2009 is expected to be a rough year. We are likely to experience a recession of -2% to -5% according to latest government estimates. That's a wide range, you say, but to put this into perspective, the worst recession on record for Singapore was merely -3.8% in 1964. If this year is expected to be the worst "post-war" recession that many economists predict it to be, be prepared for at least a -3.8% fall.

“... the worst recession on record for Singapore was merely -3.8% in 1964.”

With our economy in the doldrums, you may quickly conclude that the best action is to stay away from properties and sit out the recession. But wait, what does the chart above shows you? Isn't it strange that HDB prices are still rising in 2008 even as condos and terrace houses gets cheaper? This is most likely due to owners of private properties downgrading to HDB flats. Why? Some may have just lost a job or find their finances constrained for other reasons. 

 

Prices of condos and terrace houses are likely to keep falling as the recession deepens. Prices of HDB flats should start falling within a year as downgraders taper off. Now is not the right time to get involved in either HDB or private properties unless you have no use for your "spare cash" for the next 5 years or more. However, if you are holding onto a second HDB flat and was wondering if you should still hold onto it, it's time to get in touch with your friendly property agent :)